Nick Kristof on D.I.Y. Aid: A Quick Break Away from Egypt

Thanks to a former student, this week I saw Nick Kristof's article "D.I.Y. Foreign-Aid Revolution" in the New York Times Magazine, which describes a trend of voluntary, grassroots globalization.

I think he's onto something important about younger generations of Westerners. They're more apt to live in country and work on micro-level projects themselves. A number of them have even written books that tell their firsthand stories. Greg Mortenson's Three Cups of Tea is one of the best-known in the genre, but there are many more. Students in one of my classes get to read these, and I'm reading another book in this genre right now: Conor Grennan's Little Princes: One Man's Promise to Bring Home the Lost Children of Nepal.

Do it yourself: don't count on governments. That seems to be an enduring lesson of this younger (under 40) generation. It's a lesson that fits well with the theme of chapter 8 of the book.

More on this (and on Egypt) later.

Phase 6? The Egyptian Revolution Will Escalate Tomorrow

Hosni Mubarak made a speech in Egypt tonight, but he refused to step down. While he made some concessions to the opposition forces (amending the constitution), and even gestured toward the young people of Egypt, he did not got far enough to quell the protests.

While Mubarak played good cop, his vice president, Omar Suleiman, played bad cop. Suleiman gave a speech on Egyptian television not long after Mubarak, calling on the demonstrators to go home.

They will not go home. Tomorrow they will hold large-scale protests for the third Friday in a row. Eyewitness accounts from Tahrir Square this week--including this Thomas Friedman column and this Baltimore Sun story--describe a euphoric, peaceful, freedom-loving crowd. These protestors will be happy with nothing less than the ouster of Mubarak,his cronies, and his regime.

Before Mubarak had even finished speaking, the protesters camped out in Tahrir Square were jeering him. Totally unsatisfied, they and their friends will turn out in force tomorrow afternoon, following midday prayers.

It's clear that Mubarak and his regime just don't get what is happening in the Square. They think they can dribble out small concessions to meet tangible demands, which of course they are only granting under duress in the first place. They will only embolden the opposition, which has discovered that it can bring serious political change that was unthinkable just a few weeks ago.

Egypt: Phases 4 and 5

Developments in Egypt are heating up. Some of the loudest and largest crowds have gathered in Cairo's Tahrir Square. Egyptian president Hosni Mubarak is about to go on television, and he is expected to announce that he is stepping down. (Al Jazeera English remains essential viewing to be on top of the story, and I'm watching/listening to it right now.) This may all be rumor, but the tension is growing in Cairo.

I've been busy over the last week (although I still have a lot of papers to grade), and I've been unable to track the Egypt story as closely as I'd like. But it's clear that the struggle there has gone through two more phases.

First, early this week, the regime started a dialogue with some of the opposition forces, hoping that they could appease most of the the protesters. The young (20-30 year old) people who organized and drove the protests refused the dialogue and kept up their protests.

Second, in the past few days, it became clearer how organized and persistent these demonstrators were. They forced the regime's hand and didn't give up. They were also helped by some general strikes across Egypt yesterday. After more than two weeks of occupying Tahrir Square, it looks like they may have succeeded in their immediate demands for Mubarak to leave before they left. The release of Wael Ghonim, a Google executive who had helped organize the protests, seemed to catalyze the movement. Ghonim gave an emotional TV interview that showed the peaceful side of the younger protestors and the thuggishness of a corrupt regime. This may have been the final blow for the regime's credibility.

If and when Mubarak leaves, it will interesting to see what happens next.

Two Eyewitness Accounts from Tahrir Square

An anonymous Al Jazeera producer posted a brief and fascinating account of "The Battle of Tahrir Square" and what it was like to be in that area of Cairo yesterday (Wednesday, Feb. 2). Linked to the story are a batch of powerful still images.

And Foreign Policy posted an intriguing story by Blake Hounshell, who just arrived in Cairo and went straight to the Square today. He asks six important questions that, when answered, will help us know what's going on. His last question is especially pertinent:

Are we witnessing a revolution, a soft military coup, or a failed uprising? This is the million-dollar question, and one that I suspect can't be answered until events have run their course. Much depends on tomorrow's demonstrations: Has the regime succeeded in its usual game of divide and conquer, or will Egyptians' revulsion at this week's brutality send them to the streets in the millions?

Stay tuned . . . by tomorrow morning (East Coast US time) we should start to witness early answers to some of these questions.

A Strategic Game in Egypt?

Yesterday I said that Egypt was entering a third phase of political turmoil. A couple of observers are already framing this phase as a contest between the military-dominated Mubarak regime and its opponents in the streets. One commentator even thinks that the military has already won the game, but I hope that's wrong.

In a report issued today, the International Crisis Group, a worldwide NGO focused on diplomatic solutions, points out that many people are worried about a breakdown of law and order in Egypt, and are content to leave Mubarak in office until his term expires in September. As the report puts it,

The authorities, so far, have not suggested any willingness to concede on this point and have conditioned negotiations on an end to the protests. At the same time, the opposition refuses to enter any talks until the president goes and the violence against them stops; in this light, it is becoming increasingly difficult to imagine Egypt’s peaceful transition while he remains in office. Overcoming this obstacle will be difficult and could well require flexibility on both sides.

In other words, we are currently in the midst of a standoff in a two-actor game (akin to a game of Chicken) or a simple negotiating dilemma: the first one to blink or veer away from the collision loses the game.

Both sides have dug in: the regime insists that everyone go home and then they will talk to the opposition. The opposition (assuming it's united) insists that Mubarak leave office and his gangs stop attacking them, and then they will engage in talks (possibly with the current vice president, possibly not). They've reached a stalemate. Will anything break it?

In a post for Foreign Policy today, Robert Springborg, a longtime Egypt expert, pessimistically contends that Mubarak's military allies have already gotten the upper hand on the pro-democracy forces. Fomenting chaos first by unleashing the secret police to loot neighborhoods and attack protestors, the regime could contend that only the military could preserve law and order. With a new vice president and prime minister tied to the military, Springborg envisions a military-dominated regime for some time to come.

I agree that the opposition has been divided thus far, and that Mubarak's supporters have played a tricky strategy, but I disagree that they will necessarily succeed. With a more open media environment, the regime's cynical strategy has been clear to many Egyptians. They may have grown tired of such games.

I'm not sure this crisis is over yet. Enough popular energy has been unleashed that we can imagine more protests tomorrow after Friday's midday Islamic prayers. Tune in to al-Jazeera tomorrow morning to see who's right.

Watching a Revolution Unfold--Live

With increased globalization of media, we can now watch a revolution unfold live in real time. And a revolution is what Egypt is getting (unless something changes soon). Like Iran in 1979 or Eastern Europe in 1989, popular mobilization is driving events.

Al Jazeera's live stream continues to broadcast stunning live footage from the streets of the capital city, Cairo. In just the last few minutes, pro-government gangs on horseback and camelback charged into the crowds of anti-government demonstrators. (Some of them were carrying police IDs, which suggests that the regime fomented this counter-protest.) Groups are prying up pavement and throwing rocks at each other. It appears that anti-government forces are trying to keep the pro-Mubarak groups from getting to Tahrir Square, the center of the protests. With popular violence escalating, we are now in Phase 3 of the ongoing power struggle between the regime and its critics in the streets, with no glimpse of resolution.

Phase 1 of the protests ran from Tuesday to Friday of last week. The anti-government forces seized the initiative and surprised the regime with their bold and open contempt of the Mubarak regime. The police were ordered to crack down but failed. On Friday, January 28, the government shut down all Internet and mobile phone service, which only inflamed popular anger. After Friday midday prayers, thousands of people streamed to Tahrir (Liberation) Square in Cairo, although the police prevented many from coming by blocking passages on the two main bridges over the Nile (6 October Bridge and Qasr al-Nil Bridge). The military was ordered into the streets on Friday night, but they took no action. On Friday night, in a speech on Egyptian state television, Mubarak made his first concessions, dismissing his cabinet and appointing a new prime minister. He also claimed to be standing "on the side of the poor," a statement so far detached from reality as to be laughable.

Phase 2 began on Saturday. Defying a military curfew that was supposed to begin at 4:00 pm local time, hundreds of thousands of people poured out to Tahrir Square, at the center of Cairo. That night, looters, many of them carrying police IDs, rampaged through Cairo neighborhoods. The police disappeared from the streets and the military remained neutral, a position that they publicly announced as their official stance on Monday afternoon. Protestors also welcomed the military with hugs and smiles, doing nothing to provoke them. By Tuesday, with military protection, up to a million demonstrators responded to opposition leaders' calls to march, making these the largest demonstrations so far.

However, the opposition forces were not organized enough to march on any government sites. Had they surrounded the presidential compound in Heliopolis, they might have been able to convince Mubarak that he was truly in danger. (Of course, such a move would have put them in danger, too.) Instead, Mubarak continued to believe that he could survive this crisis--despite the protestors' demands that he go immediately. Unlike Tunisia's, Egypt's anti-government resistance is divided. That may be their undoing.

Today Egypt is in Phase 3, the escalation toward revolutionary violence. Last night (Tuesday night, February 1), in a speech on Egyptian TV, Mubarak offered a mix of responsiveness and stubbornness. He responded by announcing a few concessions, saying that his new vice president  would open a dialogue with opposition forces, that he would not run for re-election in the September presidential elections and that he would allow amendments to the constitutional articles that currently allow limits on candidates for presidential elections. But he did not explicitly rule out the possibility that his son Gamal could be one of those candidates. He also hinted darkly at the possibility of chaos, calling for people to return to normalcy. And he said that he planned to be buried in Egypt. In other words, he would not be leaving like Tunisia's Ben Ali.

Whether they are following orders or responding spontaneously to this speech, Mubarak's allies in the police are today fomenting counter-revolutionary chaos. To evoke the poet Dylan Thomas, instead of going gently into the good night, Mubarak is raging against the dying of the light. He and his regime cannot imagine giving up power. They will try to cling to power as long as possible, even if that brings violent clashes on the streets and widespread destruction of property. Mubarak will allow Egypt to burn before he will lose face.

Neither pro- nor anti-government forces have any leadership on the streets to restrain them. Unless the military topples Mubarak soon, this could easily escalate out of control into social breakdown and revolutionary chaos. Across the world, we are witnessing the utter collapse of a regime and a social revolution--live.

Why Are Egyptians Upset?

As protests swell in Cairo and schools are cancelled here in Ohio (due to snow and ice), CNN published a story based on interviews with people in the crowd  that helps explain why up to a million people have come out into the streets.

As one man shouted, "Mubarak has been here since Ronald Reagan."


A 23 year old man, who had struggled to arrive because the government shut down train services, said this:

I'd like to see a president in Egypt every eight years like in other countries. . . . This is just the country of rich people. I graduated from university and I speak four languages but I can't find a job because of nepotism and corruption. To do anything you have to pay money.

Sadly, his story is all-too-familiar for young Egyptians. Millions of them work hard, study hard, and strive to get ahead, but they are blocked by forces beyond their control. Their frustration was palpable to any visitor to Egypt who took the time to listen to them. These are bright, funny, thoughtful people who took jobs far below them just to buy food--or lost their dignity by paying bribes. Now they have finally had enough.

While much American commentary centers on fear for our strategic interests (and Israel's), not enough has focused on this straightforward demand for regular political change, economic opportunity, and less corruption. Although no government of any country can ever deliver all this, the people of Egypt (especially the young adults) will settle for Mubarak to go.

Call it term limits, Egyptian-style.