Turkey 2, Armenia 0

So Armenia lost to Turkey on the soccer field, and no major violence broke out, which makes sense, since the Armenians were outnumbered in Turkey and would hardly be expected to riot. An interesting English-language report by an Armenian writer gives the full story from an Armenian point of view. Apparently the Turks didn't sell any tickets but only allowed invited guests to go, which allowed them to vet the fans beforehand: no crazy nationalist Turks allowed. It seems the Armenians were happy to leave without getting beaten up.

Meanwhile, we'll see where the diplomatic thaw between the two sides may lead. The president of Armenia made a first-ever visit to Turkish soil in advance of the game, which was a minor breakthrough, and could lead to further negotiations. The two sides will have plenty of side to chat together next summer, since both have been eliminated from the World Cup competition. Who will they cheer for? The U.S.?

Given the U.S. team's recent performance, clinching the top spot in its North American qualifying group, they may have plenty to cheer for. I'm still rooting for Bahrain to make it on November 14.

Soccer Diplomacy?

Tonight, Armenia's national soccer team will play against Turkey, in Turkey, for World Cup qualifying (amazingly, they are in the same qualifying group). This is a dicey situation, because the Armenian people suffered horribly during World War I under Turkish Ottoman rule. They argue that it was genocide, but the Turkish government bristles at the charge and throws its weight against anyone who supports it (including the U.S. government).  Political leaders on both sides are trying to keep violent fans at bay for tonight's match in Bursa. A Washington Post story suggests that the game is encouraging a diplomatic thaw between the two governments.

I'd love to do a research project on the "soccer leads to peace" thesis, a rival to the Democratic Peace theory popularized by Michael Doyle and the Golden Arches Theory popularized by Tom Friedman. There's probably research out there already testing whether global sports (e.g., the Olympics) contribute to peaceful diplomacy. It's a cliche, for sure. But is there evidence that a sporting event can bring political rivals together? The news from Turkey and Armenia suggests there is.